ESSO - Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services

PFZ Forecasting System

The operational Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) advisory generated and disseminated by ESSO-Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has a significant impact on the livelihood of coastal community of India. The advisories are provided to fishermen on a daily basis utilizing remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data from NOAA-AVHRR and MODIS-AQUA and/or Oceansat-2 satellites, respectively. Often it becomes a major challenge to retrieve SST/Chl-a data from satellite images, particularly during the extensive cloud coverage. In India, the monsoon period coincides with the peak fishing season thereby rationalizing a need for PFZ advisories during cloudy days. Also, the present PFZ advisories are derived based on same day satellite images which are valid only for the next 24 hours. As the resources are depleting in near shore regions, it is essential to encourage the fishermen community to carry out the pelagic fishing activities in deep seas which requires multi-day fishing. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the PFZ advisories for next 3 to 5 days is necessary. To overcome the operational difficulties in generating PFZ advisories due to non-availability of data and transforming PFZ advisories into PFZ forecast, a suite of high resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical models in regional scale has been developed at INCOIS which is capable of simulating ocean features leading to PFZs. This approach not only ensures that there is no data gap in either SST or Chl-a but also makes data available in forecasting mode. The use of model data provides an additional advantage towards transforming the existing service from advisories to forecast. The modeling framework involves an online coupling of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) physics/dynamics integrated with an ecosystem model at very high spatial resolution (1/48° ; approximately 2.25 km spatially averaged).

A reliable and timely forecast on the PFZs has multifold benefits for the fishing community such as reduction in search time, savings valuable fuel and human effort, thus improving the profitability and hence, the socio-economic status of the fishermen. In addition, forecast is useful in the reduction of CO2 emissions due to burning of fossil oils. According to the report of the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER), if only mechanized crafts adopt PFZ forecasts, the benefit can go up to 1.47-1.65% of national GDP, while if both mechanized and motorized crafts adopt PFZ forecasts, the same can go up to 1.58-2% of the national GDP. Whereas, in case all mechanized crafts, motorized crafts and traditional crafts adopt PFZ forecasts the benefits will be of around 2.04% of national GDP. In short, the forecast of PFZs will lead to both economic (and therefore social) and environmental developments.

In the first phase, the forecast of PFZs for two sectors, namely Gujarat and North Andhra Pradesh will be made available to the end users.

In the subsequent phase, the operational forecast of PFZs will be made available for other twelve sectors namely - Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands, South Tamil Nadu, North Tamil Nadu, South Andhra Pradesh, North Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha, Andaman Islands and Nicobar Islands.