Predicted anomalies from
1 June 2006 & 2007 (27 members)
ST
anomaly (ºC)
Rainfall
anomaly (mm/day)
Luo et al. 2007, GRL,
submitted
Since 2005, we have
performed experimental real time seasonal forecast based on 27 members.This shows real time model forecasts for
these two IOD events. The dipole SST pattern, the drought in the eastern IO
and floods in the western IO, East Africa were predicted. The dry and warm
anomalies in Australia are also predicted well. This suggests the potential
societal benefits of IOD prediction. The 2006 IOD is co-occurred with a weak
El Nino, and the 2007 pIOD is happened with a La Nina . So the IOD can happen
independently from the ENSO. This suggests that IOD and its predictability
are originate from the internal processes in the IO. To clarify this issue…
The co-occurrence of both
pIOD and La Nina is very rare; a similar case was in 1967. The 1967 pIOD also
caused severe drought in the Southeast Australia.