Predicted anomalies from 1 June 2006 & 2007 (27 members)
Text Box: ST anomaly (ºC)
ST anomaly (ºC)
Text Box: Rainfall anomaly (mm/day)
Rainfall anomaly (mm/day)
Luo et al. 2007, GRL, submitted
Since 2005, we have performed experimental real time seasonal forecast based on 27 members.  This shows real time model forecasts for these two IOD events. The dipole SST pattern, the drought in the eastern IO and floods in the western IO, East Africa were predicted. The dry and warm anomalies in Australia are also predicted well. This suggests the potential societal benefits of IOD prediction. The 2006 IOD is co-occurred with a weak El Nino, and the 2007 pIOD is happened with a La Nina . So the IOD can happen independently from the ENSO. This suggests that IOD and its predictability are originate from the internal processes in the IO. To clarify this issue…


The co-occurrence of both pIOD and La Nina is very rare; a similar case was in 1967. The 1967 pIOD also caused severe drought in the Southeast Australia.