|This shows El Nino
predictions with and without IO air-sea coupling. One common feature is that
the predicted El Nino would persist for a longer period if without IO
signals. The transition from El Nino to La Nina would be delayed. In 1994,
strong warming appeared in the central Pacific, Modoki-type El Nino. The 1994 IOD actually tends to enhance the
El Nino signal. For the 1997/98 El Nino onset prediction (the green lines),
you may also see slight improvement if
with IOD signal.