Both winter and spring barrier exist
(90º-110ºE, 10ºS-0º)
0.5
Indian Ocean Dipole
9-member ensemble
hindcasts (1982-2004)
Luo et al., J. Climate, 2007, 2178-2190.
Predictable up to ~2 seasons ahead.
This shows probably the best skill for IOD prediction which current coupled models may achieve. Starting from each month January 1st, February 1st, March 1st, the skill decrease gradually and reach minimum values in December. This is related to the strong phase locking with monsoon. The skill then rebound and decrease quickly in next spring. This part is associated with ENSO influences. So you can see both winter and spring barrier exist in eastern pole prediction .In general, the signal can be predicted up to about 2 seasons ahead.