predicted out to 1-year lead and even up to
2-years ahead in some cases.
•Good prediction of IO signals may improve ENSO prediction.
•IOD can be basically predicted up to ~2 seasons ahead.
•Extreme IOD events (and
their climate impacts) can be
predicted up to 1-year lead.
•Long-lead predictability of IOD is not
controlled by ENSO.
•Assimilating both ocean and atmosphere observations.
•Multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction.
•Application to the society.
This suggest that Indian
Ocean observations will be very important for the IOD prediction. In the
future, we plan to assimilate both ocean and atmosphere information. The key
point is that the assimilated data should be well-balanced and consistent
with model physics. We will also pursue MME and societal application of the
prediction. JAMSTEC is going to open an outreach lab for this. Here, I would
like to talk a little more about the MME.