1.Three models with different coupling physics:
    (Each model has realistic ENSO & IOD simulations, Luo et al. 2005a)
  m1: Ocean surface is solid to atmosphere.
         (|Ua| Ua for  Tau & heat flux)
　m2: Ocean surface current momentum is passed to atmosphere.
         (|Ua-Uo| (Ua-Uo) for Tau & heat flux)
　m3: Ocean surface is solid to atmosphere,  but
         (|Ua-Uo| (Ua-Uo) for Tau)
2. Three initial conditions for each model:
  • Model spin-up (1971-1981)
  • A simple coupled SST-nudging initialization scheme
  • １day, 2 days, 3 days  (weekly NCEP Reynolds data)
9-member ensemble hindcast experiments
Forecast: 12 months from 1st day of every month during 1982-2004.
FRCGC seasonal prediction system: semi-multi-model ensemble
Based on this model, we have designed a kind of semi-multi-model ensemble prediction scheme. We perturb the model coupling physics in three different ways. And for each model we use three initial conditions generated by a simple nudging scheme assimilating SST information only. This scheme works well for ENSO prediction because ENSO is mainly determined by air-sea coupling.  But for the Indian Ocean prediction,  assimilating subsurface important can be very important because of strong stochastic and influential intraseasonal disturbances there.