|In fact, ENSO can now be
predicted up to 2 years ahead. This shows ACC started from each calendar
month, May 1st, June 1st,.. until May 1st
next year. You can see the two spring prediction barriers. The model
predictions can successfully across the first spring time. But after the
second spring time, the skill become less skillful. If averaging the skill
over all calendar month, it shows high skill above 0.6 up to 16 months lead.
At 2 years lead, it is about 0.5.
RMSE.. This is index prediction. The model also shows success in
predicting ENSO-related global climate anomalies. Here, I just show you one
example…. The 2-year lead predictability of ENSO is very close to its