[IIOE2-EP55] Vulnerability Of Kenyan Coastal Ecosystems under climate and non-climatic stress ( VOKCE )
Lead Investigator :
- Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, CNRS, Sorbonne University, Campus Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris cedex05, France
Marie-alexandrine.sicre[at]locean[dot]ipsl[dot]fr
Other Key participants:
- Jacqueline Uku, Co-PI, KMFRI, Kenya
juku988[at]gmail[dot]com
Period of Project: Jan 2023 - December 2027
Brief description of the Project:
The project builds on a collaboration between French and Kenyan research institutions aiming at investigating the impact of climatic and non-climatic stressors on blue ecosystems (mangroves and seagrasses) that act as buffers for climate mitigation and adaptation. The project focus on 1/ building capacity in climate science using paleoreconstructions from marine sediment cores and corals and on 2/ assessing non-climate stressors, such as Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and microplastics in surface waters and sediments resulting from the growth and development of coastal cities driven by blue economy to inform marine spatial planning (MSP). In addition, the impact of land use in the coastal regions of Gazi and Malindi will also be evaluated to assess the role of sedimentary processes, e.g. erosion, linked to hydrological changes on the health of these ecosystems. The approach will be developed across multiple sites and is expected to advice policy making process.
OBJ1: Future climate scenarios suggest that in low latitude regions, drought and flood severity will increase. East African countries are already facing food crises due to more frequent droughts. Between 2008 and 2010, devastating droughts had consequences on food security affecting over 13 million people in Eastern Africa contributing to socioeconomic instabilities. These droughts are associated with negative phases of the Indian ocean Dipole (IOD), the dominant climate mode in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). According to climate simulations the African continent will likely face more extreme droughts in the future. In contrast, positive IOD results in warmer SSTs in the eastern IO and catastrophic floods in the eastern Africa. The VOKCE project aim at generating the first time series beyond the instrumental period in the WIO to fully capture the low frequency SST variability of the IO using biomarker proxy in order to explore the role of the SST variability at multidecadal to century timescales on the hydroclimate using available paleo-data and data/ model simulations comparison.
OBJ2: Kenyan coastal regions are transitioning due to anthropogenic activities linked to the economic development and growing coastal cities. Port cities like Mombasa and future oil terminals in Lamu and Shimoni are expected to lead to socio-economic development with subsequently impacts on coastal environment. Marine coastal ecosystems that support the existing local economy (artisanal fisheries, tourism, mariculture) will be affected. Other coastal sites, such as Gazi and Malindi, are exposed to environmental stresses related to land use. Causes of degradation and loss of habitats also include infrastructure development, land conversion, water withdrawal and eutrophication. Both nonclimatic pressures are climatic drivers impact the resilience of coastal habitats and will also affect human well-being, and thus need to be monitored in the long-term. This project aims at providing scientific background information on these multiple stressors that can guide coastal governance and management plans.
Region(s) of study:
Provide a description of ‘where’ the research is to be conducted (for field-based activities) and/or the region or regions to which the research pertains (you are encouraged to consider providing either the coordinates of the area of studies or the coordinates of the planned cruise tracks, as well as a figure as an addendum to your proposal).
- Sediment collected for contamination assessment for PAHs and microplastics are located along the Kenyan coast (ST1).
- The marine sediment core used for generating the SST reconstruction is located in the Mozambic channel (ST6).